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Canada

Newmarket—Aurora


MP: Sandra Cobena (CPC)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Newmarket—Aurora


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 8% 37.9% 38.2% 50.6% LPC 47% ± 8% 43.0% 43.8% 47.0% NDP 2% ± 2% 10.8% 11.6% 2.4% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 4.2% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Newmarket—Aurora 50% ± 8%▼ CPC 47% ± 8% LPC CPC 2025 50.6% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Newmarket—Aurora 66%▼ CPC 34%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Newmarket—Aurora

LPC 47% ± 8% CPC 50% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Newmarket—Aurora 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 52% LPC 28% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 51% LPC 30% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 50% LPC 30% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 48% LPC 33% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% LPC 36% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 40% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 43% LPC 42% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 43% CPC 42% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 43% LPC 42% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 44% CPC 42% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 40% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 40% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% CPC 40% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 54% CPC 42% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 47% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Newmarket—Aurora

LPC 34% CPC 66% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader
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